Biden leads among high-propensity voters, who are overwhelmingly 40–50+ and above median income. They dominate in primaries. Bernie leads among low-income and young voters who are low propensity. Bernie has increased turnout among young people, but it has been met by even more increased turnout among the high-propensity voters.

The high-propensity voters are going to vote in both the primary and general. They’ll also vote for whoever is the nominee. The low-propensity voters won’t.

People who voted for Biden would vote for Bernie, but the reverse isn’t true. Maybe young people aren’t the most reliable voters, but you still need them.

Exhibit A.

You also need young people to be the backbone of a campaign’s organization. You need them to text, phonebank and canvass. The youth vote in and of itself wasn’t decisive in Obama’s 2008, but youth labor helped immensely. I actually went into all this. Did you read it?

I live in Washington State. My vote is basically worthless, but I can phone and text bank in swing states, and I will—for Bernie, but not for Biden.

You need labor and money to win a general to run get out the vote efforts. You don’t need campaign organization to win the Boomer blue dog Democrats that Biden won in the primary. They’re gonna come out regardless. You need them for the fence-sitters and to get low-propensity voters out.

Biden has zero organization and very little money, which hasn’t been a problem in the primary because he got a boost from the whole entire field consolidating around him, high level endorsements and millions upon millions in “earned media.”

The record turnout in South Carolina was a whopping 16 percent, and Biden won it handily with a last-minute endorsement. You think the average independent voter gives two shits what Jim Clyburn says, or even knows who he is? Do you think anybody who’s not a Democratic diehard puts stake in what Chris Cillizza or Joy Reid thinks about Joe Biden?

80 percent of Bernie’s supporters voted for Clinton and she lost. This time it will probably be 60 percent who vote for Biden. If winning the primary translated into winning in the general, Clinton would be president right now.

Thanks for reading (sort of).