Biden leads the pack, but for how long?

CAPS/Harris shows Biden ahead of Bernie by 30 points, but Joe’s grip on the nomination isn’t as firm as the poll suggests

Ever since Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy, Democrats to his right have been nervous about the very real prospect that the popular socialist senator from Vermont could be the party’s presidential nominee. They’ve been desperate for any sort of sign that this won’t be the case. Last week, they got their ray of hope.

Shortly after former Vice President Joe Biden officially threw his hat in the ring, the monthly Harvard CAPS/Harris poll came out showing Biden 30 points ahead of all other candidates.

The results were hailed in the press as post-announcement “surge.” Less than a week earlier, Biden had only led Sanders by 14 points, and the two were in a statistical tie in March. No doubt the buzz generated by his entering the race gave Biden some kind of boost in the polls, but the scale of the “surge” was almost certainly a statistical anomaly, and other…