Hi Chris,

I tried to present the facts as objectively as I can but obviously I’m not without bias here. I support Sanders. I want him to win. I can’t predict with any certainty that he will win, but I think I’ve made the case that he can win. What I’m really trying to underscore here is that this is still a close race regardless of what the polls say. It’s still within 20 points. That’s according to the Morning Consult poll, with 15,000 respondents, which validates my earlier point about the 30-point lead being nothing more than statistical noise.

Also, the Morning Consult poll found that both Biden and Sanders had a 6-point bump immediately after announcement, but Sanders’ flattened out after about a month or so. I expect Biden’s will too. Bottom line is that people really shouldn’t get too excited about big leads in the polls this early on.

I do think Biden has something that appeals to a large swathe of voters. He’s affable and has a warm personality. That goes a long way in elections. A lot of voters don’t vote on policy. I read a study that found something like one-in-four decide whether they like a person and then project their positions. Hillary didn’t have that warmth, but she was a more polished candidate and she guarded her tongue better. Biden’s a goof who speaks off the cuff. On the other hand, so is Trump, but Democratic voters don’t go for the same schtick as Republicans. They want someone who says the right things.

Also, Biden’s not a woman. There’s not that excitement about the first woman president and the line of attack about “sexist Bernie bros” isn’t there. In fact, the shoes on the other foot, with Biden fending off allegations of impropriety.

I predict the gap will close in the next four months to within the margin of error, and then Bernie will pull ahead after the debates. Biden’s vulnerable on not just race but also his record on the Iraq War and other key issues like abortion. (In the 90s his NARAL rating hovered around 30–40%). I expect Sanders will mop the floor with him