Justin Ward
1 min readAug 28, 2021

--

How do you think crime works? Do you think criminals are like "Maybe I shouldn't commit a crime because I saw one extra cop car pass by every eight hours?"

https://justinward.medium.com/more-cops-dont-mean-less-crime-f80bffa0d28d

And what's your basis for saying crimes "spiked" and "skyrocketed"? A bunch of sensationalist news articles using figures reported by police, who have every incentive to manipulate said figure (and often do). See this recent article about police officers asking Shotspotter to fabricate data:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/qj8xbq/police-are-telling-shotspotter-to-alter-evidence-from-gunshot-detecting-ai

Police routinely manipulate and reclassify data for political purposes:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/08/why-crime-isnt-the-question-and-police-arent-the-answer

If you look at actual meta-analysis of scientific literature going back to the 1960s on this exact question (one of the most studied issues in criminology), you'll see that literally hundreds of studies have found that police presence in a neighborhood has never been found to have more than a modest effect (at best).

On average, it has little to no effect, except in some studies that show problem-based policing and emphasis patrols have a small effect that is temporary.

--

--

Justin Ward
Justin Ward

Written by Justin Ward

Journalist and activist. Founder and co-chair of DivestSPD. Bylines at SPLC, The Baffler, GEN, USA Today. Follow on Twitter: @justwardoctrine, @DivestSPD

No responses yet