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Is Biden’s lead ‘insurmountable’?
The odds of a Bernie Sanders comeback may be slim — but it’s hardly impossible
The 2020 Democratic Primary is, for all intents and purposes, over — or at least that’s the consensus among the pundits and the political class. Joe Biden has a sizable lead in both delegates and nationwide polling. He’s already gearing up for the general and vetting his potential running mates. In order to win, his opponent Bernie Sanders would have to win the remaining states by a margin of 20 percent, which would constitute a swing of 30–40 points.
This is highly improbable, but is it impossible?
Such a dramatic comeback has no precedent in the annals of American electoral politics, but then again, we live in interesting times. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 defied all reason and every expectation. On the eve of the election, pollsters placed Hillary Clinton’s chances at between 85 percent and 99 percent. FiveThirtyEight currently places Bernie’s odds at less than 1 percent.
At the same time, Biden’s emergence as front-runner is just as implausible and unprecedented. There has never in recent memory been a Democratic candidate who went on to win Super Tuesday after performing so poorly in the first three states. In mid-February, he was polling at 15 percent.
