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Polls underestimate Bernie’s support
Many of Sanders’ supporters aren’t what pollsters call ‘likely voters,’ but that doesn’t mean they won’t turn out.
For the past week or so there has been non-stop talk in the press about the “Warren surge.” There’s a pervasive narrative that Elizabeth Warren’s star is rising while Bernie Sanders is all but done for. With more than a little schadenfreude, a Fox News headline announced “Warren surges to tie Biden for 2020 Dem nomination lead, as Sanders sinks to distant 3rd in latest polls.” A Sept. 30 Politico story proclaimed “Bernie Sanders Is in Trouble.”
It’s pretty clear that Warren has gained some ground in the last month, but most polls show Biden maintaining a double-digit lead while Warren and Sanders are within the margin of error of one another. There are outliers, however, in which Warren appears to “surge” ahead of both Biden and Sanders.
What are we to make of it when one poll has Warren “surging” into the high 20s, and another comes out the next day showing her at 14 points? Did she get really popular overnight and then blow it?
Probably not.
