Yeah, I think about this a lot. It’s coming pretty soon, probably around 2022–2023 or so regardless of who is in office. The business cycle runs about a decade give or take. We were in an upswing at the end of Obama’s term and it kept going strong during Trump’s first couple of years, which gave him somewhat of a boost.

We’re kind of in a no-win situation. If Bernie takes the election and he’s in office when it hits, it could be a huge setback for his entire program. He’s already going to face hostility from both obstructionist Republicans and moderates within his own party.

On the other hand, Trump being in office when the recession comes could also make things take a dark turn. Overall, he might suffer a crisis of legitimacy in all other segments of the population aside from his base, which might even double down on their support, seeing him as a strongman.

He could also start ratcheting up the scapegoating and you could see some really nasty violence toward immigrants and other minorities. Fascism has historically been strengthened by economic downturn.

But the darkest possible timeline is if this were combined with another major terrorist attack on US soil, where even liberals feel the need to rally around him, like they did with Bush after 9/11.

Any way you slice it, we’re in for some troubling times.